How Do Trends and Colors Become “It”?
Color trends are forecast at least 1-2 years in advance and are basically self-fulfilling prophesies. There are many color and trend forecasting and tracking services. Some are individuals, some are professional companies like Pantone, and some are associations that reach consensus, such as the Color Marketing Group, which is made up of representatives from several consumer product groups (auto, paint, textile, furniture, etc.). The large retailers have their own trend forecasting people. Everyone tracks everyone else, and bases their own predictions on what everyone else is forecasting, because no one wants to not have forecast The Hot Color or trend.
Manufacturers and retailers subscribe to forecasting services and plan their product lines 6 months – 2 years in advance. Why so far in advance? Once colors are forecast it takes time to translate that into product design and get designs developed and into production, and get the stuff to the retailers. The time frame for this movement is getting much shorter, as manufacturers are able to produce and get their products to market in quicker time frames. There are slight differences appropriate for different product types, though they generally track each other.
Trends are rarely entirely new and unexpected, but evolve and are “updated” – tomorrow’s trend is based on today’s, with a slight change, based on where the culture’s heading. It’s rare to have an entirely new trend that’s a radical departure from what’s currently in vogue. Generally trends are “spotted” on the “street” or at the high end, market, and filter down to the higher volume and mass markets. Leading designers will also start new trends, by designing something completely different than what’s out there. If it becomes an instant success, everyone wonders why they didn’t see it coming, but since the new trend is usually introduced at the high end, it will in time migrate to the more mass markets.
In our culturally diverse society where everyone prides themselves on being unique, there are more and more trends at any given time. It’s now quite rare to have one major, dominant trend, there are usually 4 or 5 key ones. And, for every trend, there is a “counter” trend…. and every color can be the “new neutral”!!
Sudden social, economic, or political changes can cause sudden changes in incoming trends – the 9/11 terrorist attacks brought in more somber, muted colors than had been predicted before it happened, the sudden tanking of the economy brought a quick end to “bling” and conspicuous consumption, and the sudden death of Michael Jackson could spark demand for nostalgic, pop culture products and the accompanying colors that might not have happened otherwise.
So how much of any particular color or design style you will actually see at retail will depend on how many manufacturers and retailers buy into the trend forecasts when they were originally made and got them into production, and whether there were unanticipated triggering events.
Part of designers’ jobs is to continually track trends in the economy, fashion, lifestyles, marketing, social and global issues, and business, and look for their potential impact on consumer purchases. Designers interpret and distill their research for relevancy to the company and industry, and recommend the appropriate design strategy to meet consumer expectations and create new consumer needs and wants.
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